EURCAD - Update

I got stopped out of the EURCAD trade last week. And sure as it often happens the pair reversed course and went in the direction that I had in my mind when I initiated the trade. The wave 2 correction was just too deep to my liking. I believe that this is just the start of wave 5 and I will get an opportunity to go short again (hopefully without getting stopped out this time). The daily count seems to indicate that we might have completed a 1-2 sequence and have a started a wave 3. I expect another 1-2 sequence in wave 3. The 4 hour chart seems to indicate that the pair has completed or is close to completing a 5 wave sequence from 1.4330. Any 3 wave rally would be an opportunity to sell. As posted last week I believe that the pair might have completed a wave 4. The back to back bearish candles right at the 50% retracement of wave 3 seems to confirm that opinion.

EURCAD Trade initiated

I went short EURCAD at 1.4150 against a 1.4250 stop.
The pair might have possibly completed a wave 2 of 3 or C in a flat correction.

The longer term chart seems to indicate that the pair might have completed a wave 4 of the downtrend that started last year. Wave 4 seems to be in 3 waves where wave A=C. The bearish engulfing candle right at the 50% retracement of wave 3 seems to indicate that wave 4 might be complete. Given that the wave 2 was shallow (only 38.2% retracement of wave 1) a deeper wave 4 retracement was expected in line with the alternating principle. A follow through this week to the bearish engulfing candle from last week would probably confirm the completion of wave 4.

USD/CHF - Is Wave 4 complete?

USDCHF seems to have completed a 3 wave correction at a minor degree. It's possible that the wave 4 correction of the move down from 1.17 is complete and the price could take out previous swing lows to complete wave 5. However, given that wave 2 was very shallow we might see a much deeper wave 4 correction. The correction that seems to have completed may just be the first wave of a 3 wave correction. It's possible that this could evolve into a triangle wave 4 correction or some other complex form of consolidation before another leg down to complete wave 5.
I was hoping for the current move to go up to 1.0050 to go short as posted last week. I would now look for a pullback to go short.

Gold - A case for both bull and bear

Both bulls and bears can make a case based on recent price action in gold.

Bearish scenario: The previous swing high (around 1390) was a major top (wave 5) and price has just completed a minor degree 1,2 sequence. The other scenario is that the previous swing high was a wave 3 and price has completed a A, B sequence of a zigzag correction of wave 4 and the C leg could take the price to around 1280.

Bullish scenario: The price has just complete a wave 4 flat correction and has completed a 1,2 sequence of wave 5.

There are other possible scenarios like a triangle wave 4. I will stick to these scenarios for now until price action indicates otherwise.